Confused About Red Meat? Why the Evidence Is Not as Simple as the Guidelines

Farmin Shahabuddin, MPH, National Center for Health Research

Americans love red meat, but for years, we have been told it is bad for us. The World Health Organization in 2015 announced that red meat is “probably carcinogenic” to humans, and research has shown that regularly eating red meat may shorten your lifespan. However, the 2025-2030 Dietary Guidelines for Americans released in January 2026 put red meat at the most important place on the food pyramid, suggesting we should eat it very frequently.1

Before 2026, government guidelines recommended replacing foods with saturated fats, such as processed and unprocessed red meat, with plant-based foods.2 After the new guidelines were released in 2026, the American Heart Association continued to encourage us to eat more plant-based proteins, as well as seafood and lean meats, and to limit high-fat animal products, including red meat, butter, lard, and tallow, which are likely to increase our chances of developing heart-related diseases. 3

Who should you believe? Here is what the research says.

Unprocessed Red Meat

Everyone agrees that when you eat meat, it is better to eat steak, chops, and ground beef that have not been cured, smoked, or preserved with additives. These are considered “unprocessed meats” compared to hot dogs, bologna, sausage, bacon, and other processed meats.

Heart Disease and Diabetes

A large 2023 study of more than 4.4 million adults published in the European Heart Journal found that adults who ate about 3.5 ounces of unprocessed red meat per day were 17% more likely to have coronary heart disease (the most common type of heart disease) than those who ate less. 4 They were also 27% more likely to have type 2 diabetes.

A 2022 study of over 2.4 million adults across Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia found that those who ate about 1.8 ounces of unprocessed red meat daily were 9% more likely to develop ischemic heart disease and 14% more likely to develop type 2 diabetes, compared to those who ate none. At 3.5 ounces daily, that number climbed to 12% more likely to develop ischemic heart disease and 23% more likely to develop diabetes, compared to those who ate none.5

Cancer

Adults who ate about 1.8 ounces of unprocessed red meat daily were 30% more likely to develop colorectal cancer compared to people who ate none. At 3.5 ounces daily, that number rose to 37% more likely, compared to people who ate none. Women who ate 1.8 to 3.5 ounces of unprocessed red meat daily were 26% more likely to develop breast cancer compared to women who ate none. 5

A recent review of more than 100 published medical journal studies confirmed these findings and found that adults who eat more unprocessed red meat are somewhat more likely to develop endometrial cancer, lung cancer, and liver cancer, compared to people who eat less. 6

Processed Red Meat

Processed red meat includes items like bacon, sausages, hot dogs, deli meats, and other meats that have been cured, smoked, salted, or preserved with chemical additives.

Heart Disease and Diabetes

Processed red meat showed worse outcomes than unprocessed varieties, even at smaller amounts. The 2023 European Heart Journal study found that people who ate just 1.8 ounces per day were 26% more likely to develop cardiovascular disease overall, 16% more likely to have a stroke, and 16% more likely to develop heart failure, compared to those who ate less per day. 4

The apparent impact of processed red meat on diabetes was even more pronounced. At just 1.8 ounces daily, people were 44% more likely to develop type 2 diabetes than those who ate less per day. This amount is much smaller than a typical serving of unprocessed red meat, which suggests that processed red meats should be eaten as infrequently as possible, even compared to unprocessed meat. 4

Cancer

A recent review of more than 100 published medical journal studies found that adults who eat more processed red meat are somewhat more likely to develop several cancers, compared to people who eat less. Those who ate the most processed meat were 6% more likely to develop breast cancer, 18% more likely to develop colorectal cancer, 21% more likely to develop colon cancer, 22% more likely to develop rectal cancer, and 12% more likely to develop lung cancer. 6

Not All Fats Are Created Equal

A large 2024 U.S. study published in JAMA Internal Medicine examined how different sources of dietary fat influenced the likelihood of dying from all causes and from cardiovascular disease. Researchers analyzed data from more than 407,000 adults who were followed for 24 years, from 1995 to 2019. 7 Compared to people who ate the least plant fat, adults who consumed more plant fats were 9% less likely to die from any cause and 8% less likely to die from cardiovascular disease. When plant fats came specifically from whole grains and vegetable oils, they were 10% less likely to die from any cause and 7% less likely to die from cardiovascular disease, compared to people who ate the least of these fats. In contrast, people who consumed the highest amounts of animal-based fats were 16% more likely to die from any cause and 14% more likely to die from cardiovascular disease, compared to people who ate the least animal fat.

What If America Cut Back on Red Meat?

In 2024, researchers published a study in The Lancet Planetary Health that used computer modeling to estimate what would happen if Americans reduced their red meat consumption. Using real data from over 8,600 Americans, they projected the health effects over 10 years. 8 If Americans cut processed meat by 30%, the model predicted approximately 353,000 fewer cases of type 2 diabetes, 92,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, 53,300 fewer cases of colorectal cancer, and 16,700 fewer deaths.

If Americans cut unprocessed red meat by 30%, the benefits were even greater: approximately 733,000 fewer cases of type 2 diabetes, 291,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, 32,200 fewer cases of colorectal cancer, and 46,100 fewer deaths. If Americans cut both processed and unprocessed red meat by 30%, the combined effect would be approximately 1,073,000 fewer cases of type 2 diabetes, 382,000 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, 84,400 fewer cases of colorectal cancer, and 62,200 fewer deaths over the decade. Men would benefit more than women since they typically eat more processed meat and are more likely to develop colorectal cancer.

Going Green: The Power of Plant-Based Eating

A 2023 analysis of 20 randomized clinical trials of 1,878 adults found that following a vegetarian diet for an average of six months improved several health measures. Compared with meat eaters, those on vegetarian diets had lower levels of LDL cholesterol, often called “bad” cholesterol because it contributes to plaque buildup in the arteries. These improvements were seen even among participants who were already taking cholesterol-lowering medications, suggesting that dietary changes can provide additional benefits even for people on medications. People on vegetarian diets tended to have better blood sugar control and an average weight loss of 7.5 pounds over the study period. 9

The Mediterranean Secret: Eating Well Without Giving Up Flavor

The Mediterranean diet is a way of eating based on the traditional foods enjoyed by people living in countries around the Mediterranean Sea, such as Greece, Italy, and Spain. Rather than being a strict diet plan, it is more of a lifestyle approach that emphasizes fresh, whole ingredients and healthy fats.

A typical day on the Mediterranean diet includes 10:

  • Plenty of vegetables (3 to 9 servings)
  • Fresh fruit (half to 2 servings)
  • Whole grains and cereals (1 to 13 servings)
  • Generous amounts of olive oil (up to 8 servings)

The diet provides around 2,220 calories per day, with about 37% coming from healthy monounsaturated fats found in olive oil. While the diet does not exclude meat, it includes more fish, lean meats, and plant-based foods that are fresh, locally grown, and minimally processed.

The Health Benefits

Researchers found 13% fewer people with type 2 diabetes among those who followed the diet compared to those who did not. 10 One Greek study reported even more striking results, with men who closely followed the Mediterranean diet experiencing a 49% lower chance of developing diabetes and women a 69% lower chance of developing diabetes, compared to people who did not follow the diet, over 10 years. 10 For people who already have diabetes or pre-diabetes, the diet has been shown to improve blood sugar control. A major study involving over 3.2 million people found that those who closely followed the Mediterranean diet were less likely to develop several cancers, including breast, colorectal, stomach, liver, and bladder cancers, and 13% fewer deaths from cancer. 10

The evidence for heart benefits is particularly impressive. A major study following over 74,800 women for 20 years found that those who closely followed the Mediterranean diet were 29% less likely to develop heart disease and 13% less likely to have a stroke, compared to women who did not follow the diet. Research on the diet supplemented with extra virgin olive oil or nuts showed 28 to 30% fewer heart attacks, strokes, and cardiovascular deaths. Another study followed heart disease patients for 7 years and found that men on the Mediterranean diet were 33% less likely to suffer from major cardiovascular events compared to those on a low-fat diet. 10

The Bottom Line

The new dietary guidelines encourage eating more protein, especially red meat, but studies of millions of people disagree. Processed meats like bacon, sausages, and deli meats can cause health problems if eaten frequently even in small portions, so avoid processed red meats as much as possible. Unprocessed red meat, like steak, hamburgers, or chops are less unhealthy but also should not be eaten more than a few times a week. Keep in mind that even a quarter-pound hamburger has more meat than the 3.5 oz found to increase heart disease, diabetes, and cancer if eaten every other day. Eating one medium-sized steak is probably more red meat than should be eaten on a weekly basis. Instead, eating meals rich in vegetables, fruits, whole grains, and healthy fats, like the Mediterranean diet, helps you live a healthier, longer life. You can enjoy red meat in moderation, but keep in mind that even small portions can contribute to serious health problems if eaten frequently.

References

  1. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (2026). Fact sheet: Trump administration resets U.S. nutrition policy, puts real food back at the center of health. https://www.hhs.gov/press-room/fact-sheet-historic-reset-federal-nutrition-policy.html
  2. Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee. (2024). Scientific report of the 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. https://www.dietaryguidelines.gov/2025-advisory-committee-report
  3. American Heart Association. (2026, January 7). New dietary guidelines underscore importance of healthy eating [Press release]. https://newsroom.heart.org/news/releases-20260107-6915862
  4. Shi, W., Huang, X., Schooling, C. M., & Zhao, J. V. (2023). Red meat consumption, cardiovascular diseases, and diabetes: A systematic review and meta-analysis. European Heart Journal, 44(28), 2626–2635. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehad336
  5. Lescinsky, H., Afshin, A., Ashbaugh, C., et al. (2022). Health effects associated with consumption of unprocessed red meat: A Burden of Proof study. Nature Medicine, 28, 2075–2082. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-022-01968-z
  6. Farvid, M. S., Sidahmed, E., Spence, N. D., Mante Angua, K., Rosner, B. A., & Barnett, J. B. (2021). Consumption of red meat and processed meat and cancer incidence: A systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies. European Journal of Epidemiology, 36(9), 937–951. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-021-00741-9
  7. Zhao, B., Gan, L., Graubard, B. I., Männistö, S., Fang, F., Weinstein, S. J., Liao, L. M., Sinha, R., Chen, X., Albanes, D., & Huang, J. (2024). Plant and animal fat intake and overall and cardiovascular disease mortality. JAMA Internal Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamainternmed.2024.3799
  8. Kennedy, J., Alexander, P., Smith Taillie, L., & Jaacks, L. M. (2024). Estimated effects of reductions in processed meat consumption and unprocessed red meat consumption on occurrences of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality in the USA: A microsimulation study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 8(7), e441–e451. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00118-9
  9. Wang, T., Kroeger, C. M., Cassidy, S., Mitra, S., Ribeiro, R. V., Jose, S., Masedunskas, A., Senior, A. M., & Fontana, L. (2023). Vegetarian dietary patterns and cardiometabolic risk in people with or at high risk of cardiovascular disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open, 6(7), e2325658. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.25658
  10. Barber, T. M., Kabisch, S., Pfeiffer, A. F. H., & Weickert, M. O. (2023). The effects of the Mediterranean diet on health and gut microbiota. Nutrients, 15(9), 2150. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu15092150